Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS61 KRLX 102030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
330 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system brings a wet finish to the weekend with
embedded thunderstorms possible into this evening. Mainly dry
weather returns for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Much of the area southeast of the Ohio Valley was moving into a
break in the showers associated with low/mid-level isentropic
lift moving northeast, out of the area, this afternoon. Showers
will continue to be most persistent west of the Ohio River,
where stronger low/mid-level flow and more persistent isentropic
lift reside. These showers were well out ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west, which will cross the forecast area
late overnight tonight into Monday morning.

The showers will work east across much of the forecast area
tonight. While thunder is possible amid narrow elevated CAPE,
the chance decreases this evening as dry mid level air takes
out ice in cloud, and hence the potential for charge
separation.

Rainfall amounts already varied from a half to one and a half
tenths east of the Ohio River, straddling the tenth of an inch
wetting rain threshold, to one half inch to an inch along and
west of the Ohio River. These differences will increase with
time, but most of the area should eventually realize a wetting
rain, while totals along and west of the Ohio River exceed 1.5
inches in spots, with most locations in southeast Ohio ending up
with at least an inch.

Behind the cold front, clearing will take place from west to
east across the lowlands Monday morning, and in the mountains
early Monday afternoon. A secondary cold front will be
approaching from the northwest as Monday comes to a close.

Central guidance reflects lows above normal Monday morning with
the front just crossing, and highs again just above normal in
the Pacific air behind it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The aforementioned secondary cold front in the near term
discussion above will quickly sweep through the forecast area on
Monday night, bringing nothing more than a subtle wind shift
(WSW to NNW) to most of the forecast area. Isolated light
rain/snow showers are possible in the mountains courtesy of
land forced ascent, but no accumulation is expected. Wind gusts
of 25-35 mph are possible in the mountains Monday night, with
isolated higher gusts not out of the question. Lows will be in
the 30s area-wide.

Lingering stratocu on Tuesday will gradually dissipate
throughout the day, leading to mostly sunny to clear skies by
late in the afternoon, as high pressure traverses north of the
region. Cold air advection will keep highs on Tuesday slightly
below normal - low to mid 50s for the lowlands, with 40s in the
mountains.

Clear skies and light boundary layer flow on Tuesday night will
equate to a cold overnight, with lows in the 20s across many
locations in the CWA, with mid/upper teens not out of the
question in some of the mountain valleys. Given mixing Tuesday
afternoon with drier air aloft, some lowering in progged
overnight temperatures by guidance as we get closer to Tuesday
night is certainly possible. Additionally, some river valley
`steam` fog is expected Tuesday night.

Dry weather continues on Wednesday amid mostly sunny skies ahead
of the next progressive disturbance approaching from the west.
General downslope flow will aid in temperatures returning to
above normal, with upper 50s to mid 60s in the lowlands, while
upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The next low pressure system and associated cold front quickly
moves into the area Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a
return of showers to the area. Precipitation in general is
expected to be on the light side, mainly under half an inch. The
one caveat as the system initially moves in will be the
potential for a brief period of light freezing rain across the
northeast mountain valleys (in Pocahontas County) late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will be highly
dependent on how well the valleys decouple Wednesday night, and
if precipitation moves in quickly enough towards dawn on
Thursday. Given low confidence at this point, will hold off on a
mention in the HWO for now. The chance for showers will
gradually taper late Thursday and Thursday night, lingering
longest in/near the higher terrain, with perhaps a few isolated
showers continuing early on Friday. Building high pressure then
brings dry conditions for the remainder of Friday and Saturday.
Near seasonable temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Showers ahead of a cold front will continue to reduce
visibility to MVFR at times today into tonight, even briefly
IFR. The chance for rain lowering ceilings to MVFR will increase
heading into tonight. Thunder is also possible this afternoon
and evening, but severe weather is not expected. PROB30 groups
were used to show low confidence of lightning at a particular
airport.

The showers will end from west to east overnight tonight, as
the cold front enters the area. Visibility will improve to VFR,
but this is when MVFR ceilings are most likely. Ceilings could
lower to IFR and possibly EKN early Monday morning. Otherwise,
ceilings will lift and break up from west to east after sunrise
Monday morning, and then the rest of Monday will turn out VFR.

South to southeast surface flow, generally light but gusty at
times in the mountains, with peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts, will
veer to south to southwest through the afternoon and evening,
and then become light west behind the cold front overnight into
early Monday morning. Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft
this afternoon into tonight will become moderate west to
southwest overnight into early Monday morning. The strong flow
aloft may result in low level wind shear anywhere surface flow
drops out this afternoon into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind gusts will fluctuate. Low level wind
shear is possible this afternoon into tonight. A thunderstorm
may directly impact an airport with lightning, briefly heavier
rainfall and possibly gusty winds. Otherwise, timing of flight
categories associated with the showers and the frontal passage
may vary. including improvement of ceilings late overnight into
Monday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...TRM