Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS61 KRLX 220608
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
108 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Monday under high pressure, with a milder afternoon
on Monday. The next chance for precipitation is Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...

Lake enhanced stratocumulus on northwesterly flow, any associated
festive flakes, and impacts to radiational cooling will be the only
forecast problems through this forecast period. Weak northwesterly
flow continues to advect low level moisture beneath a rapidly
drying layer associated with subsidence. Will see these factors
continue to battle through daybreak with patches of clearing
before wholesale improvement during the day today. With a rather
dry airmass in place coupled with light surface winds,
locations that clear will radiate quite effectively and tried to
draw this in where clearing is most likely before daybreak
(Southern Coalfields to Metro Valley). With cloud depth
shrinking due to aforementioned drying aloft, any lingering
flurries should become decreasingly common heading into
daybreak.

Once any lingering stratocumulus clears out today, mostly clear
skies with just a few mid-level clouds to interrupt them are
expected. With a continued dry, still air mass in place tonight,
will see more widespread effective radiational cooling down into the
upper teens/lower 20s on lowland ridges and lower to mid teens in
areas favored for cold air drainage. In the mountain valleys, some
single digits could be observed for Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

High pressure starts this period with a surface high just off
to our east. This feature will slowly drift away from the area
allowing a clipper to graze us on Tuesday. This system looks to
lose most of its energy as it comes into the area with a warm
front lifting north from a developing low out toward the west.
Surface high pressure makes its way back cutting most of the
moisture out of the warm front. There is only a few hundreths of
an inch of QPF expected across the northern half of the CWA.
Rain will be the regime for most of the area, however snow
showers are possible in the northeast mountains with little to
no accumulations expected. As high pressure builds back in along
with reinforcing upper level ridging most activity will be
stiff armed into the next period with only slight chance PoPs in
the forecast. There will be a warming trend starting Monday and
lasting into the next period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

High pressure will have an impact to the area in this period
holding off most activity until the end of the period when
models decide on a few disturbances impacting the area directly
with higher chance PoPs on the board for Saturday and Sunday.
The warming trend will continue for this entire period with
temperatures reaching near 60 degrees across the lowlands by
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...

Largely VFR stratocumulus deck near the terminals dissipates from
the top down heading into daybreak as subsidence builds over the
region. Prior to this, some very light occasional flurries are
possible from this deck.

Winds light through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement from MVFR to VFR at
BKW could vary slightly from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 12/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JP