Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

560
FXUS61 KRLX 131720
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1220 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Latest model runs continue to indicate less snowfall with the system
on Thursday, with the bulk of accumulating snowfall now confined to
the mountains in upslope precipitation. Changeover to snow area wide
is now a few hours earlier than previously forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Precipitation returns to the area Wednesday into Thursday,
  starting as rain area wide, and transitioning to snow late
  Wednesday night into Thursday, along with falling
  temperatures, and cold wind chills.

- 2) Colder temperatures to finish the week and into early next
  week, along with several quick moving disturbances that will
  produce periods of snow showers.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Precipitation returns to the area Wednesday into Thursday. A low
pressure system over the Great Lakes region will eventually carve
out a trough across the eastern U.S. by later in the day Wednesday
into Thursday. A shortwave in the base of the trough will spread
rain into the Mid Ohio Valley region by early Wednesday, with colder
air filtering into the region later in the day as the upper low over
the Great Lakes sags southward, eventually carving out a deep trough
across the eastern U.S. Precipitation will gradually change over to
snow, first across the mountains Wednesday evening, with snow
expected area wide shortly after midnight. Very minor accumulations
are possible across the lower elevations, with greater chances
expected across the mountains, as by the time it`s cold enough for
snow across the lower elevations, the bulk of forcing/moisture and
front should be to the east of the area. The probability for at
least 2 inches of snow with this system across the lower elevations
generally remains at 20% or less. Snow should start out as a
heavier/wet snow, gradually transitioning to a fluffier, lighter
snow as we progress into Thursday. The upper low/trough will
continue to linger over the region through Thursday afternoon with
an upslope component, and moisture fetch setting up off the Great
Lakes. In addition to the snow, the much colder air filtering into
the region, combined with gusty winds from tight pressure gradient
and CAA, will result in quite a shock to the system. Wind chills
Thursday and Thursday night will dip into the teens across the
lowlands, and single digits to below zero across the mountains, with
single digits possible in the lower elevations Thursday night/Friday
morning. A cold weather advisory may be necessary for the higher
elevations of the northern mountains during this time period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Continued cold and unsettled this weekend into early next week.
Upper trough expected to take hold across the area this weekend as
additional disturbances drop south out of Canada, each providing a
reinforcing shot of colder air, and chances for snowfall. With the
origin, expect generally light, fluffy snows that should result in
accumulations at times.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions through at least 10Z Wednesday, when rain will move
back into the area, with widespread MVFR ceilings starting to take
hold, particularly after 12Z Wednesday, with local/areas of IFR
expected to develop after 15Z as precipitation becomes more
developed.

Gusty southwesterly winds during the period, with occasional gusts
in the teens to 20s across the lowlands, and 20s to lower 30s across
the higher terrain. In addition, LLWS is expected tonight area wide,
particularly between the hours of 22Z Tuesday through 09-12Z
Wednesday, and have added it to the TAF`s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation on Wednesday and
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

IFR in snow showers and low ceilings Wednesday evening and
Thursday, particularly in the mountains. Additional rounds of
snow showers over the weekend and IFR restrictions possible at
times.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL